The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the UK economy will shrink this year while every other major economy will grow. The Bank of England also forecasts a 2023 recession - albeit shorter and less severe than previously forecast. Forecasts are never perfect. There are many factors affecting economic growth, from geopolitics to the weather. Predictions often miss the mark but can point in the right direction. UK's figures reflect the impact of closed schools, cancelled operations during Covid, as well as disruption due to strikes. The bigger picture, however, remains: the Bank of England and the IMF both expect the UK economy to shrink this year, while other G7 countries are expected to grow. There are ten million working-age people who aren't in a paid job. Nearly nine million of them aren't called ‘unemployed’ because they're not actively looking for work, or available to start a job. Instead they are called ‘economically inactive’.