The 2018 annual Munich Security Report cited growing pressure on nuclear disarmament treaties and ongoing security concerns in eastern and central Europe as a cause for concern, and most worryingly the erosion of arms control agreements. ‘Deployment of additional weapons and tensions over military exercises has increased the risk of an inadvertent armed clash’, the report warns. ‘In this dire state of affairs, miscalculations and misunderstandings could lead to unintended military clashes. The Ukraine conflict was a stumbling block to de-escalation of tensions between Russia and the West.’ America’s decision to provide lethal arms to Ukraine would cement the current stalemate as countries in eastern Europe struggle in an environment of contested security, with the EU and NATO on one side and Russia on the other, at a time when the EU's Eastern partnership policy has ‘lost its steam’.

Far-right Polish groups are using links to religion to gain mainstream influence. A terrified onlooker saw hooligans chanting overtly racist and fascist slogans, calling for ‘White Poland’, and shouting ‘Beat the red scum’. He saw priests simply moving to the rhythm of these chants, doing nothing about them. Approaching two of them, he asked, ‘Is this what your Catholicism looks like?’ They lowered their heads, but said nothing. The church’s hard-line nationalist wing is out of control, and nobody is able or willing to stop it. Observers point to the close connections between the Catholic Church and two high-profile nationalist movements. The messages that Catholicism is the only true religion and that Poles are superior to other nations are thinly veiled by shallow humanitarian slogans.

Since the end of apartheid the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated South African politics. The people struggle with 30% unemployment, 55% live below the poverty line, and the 75-year-old president faces serious corruption charges. Amid calls for him to resign, Zuma still has many supporters, including two of the six ANC leaders even though he is no longer the party leader. He is widely blamed for the corruption, misrule and economic stagnation that now afflict the nation. Charges of corruption - always vehemently denied - appear to be catching up with him. Zuma refuses to step down, but opposition parties are discussing the possibility of taking to the streets on 22 February‚ the day of a no confidence vote in parliament.

On 20 January, Turkey launched an air and ground offensive against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in Afrin, on the Syrian/Turkish border. The action has revealed a well-defined split in the Syrian public between supporters and opponents of the operation of daily bombing by troops, tanks, artillery and war planes. Some Syrians support this action as it could provide an opportunity for them to return home; others fear Turkey’s intentions are far from noble. Hundreds have died. 400,000 Kurds are sheltering in Afrin, and no one can enter or leave the area. Many believers are sheltering in churches. See also

Amnesty International says that testimony gathered from the scene showed evidence that on 4 February the Syrian government used internationally-banned chemical weapons on the town of Saraqib. It accuses the Assad regime of showing ‘utter contempt’ for international law. The next day the UN Security Council failed to agree on a US-proposed statement condemning the continued use of chemical weapons in Syria. Russia was blamed by some diplomats for this failure. On 6 February, another chemical attack is reported to have targeted Afrin. An eyewitness reported, ‘Russian airplanes have not left the skies of East Ghouta. I watched missiles that look like they were made locally, carrying chemicals targeting civilians specifically in Douma. The fear is difficult to comprehend. Women and children are running in chaos. Injured are everywhere with blood all over. It is a civilian massacre. The airplanes come back to target the rescuers attending the wounded.’

The North Korean missile crisis must be turned into a rallying cry for prayer for persecuted Christians in that country, says Release International, which supports Christians under pressure around the world. North Korea brought forward its annual display of military might to 8 February ahead of the Winter Olympics in South Korea. The muscle-flexing has been described as grandstanding in a crisis that could threaten nuclear war - but many believe the crisis should be turned into a rallying cry for prayer for the persecuted. North Korea is probably the harshest persecutor of Christians on the face of the earth.

A power struggle in the Maldives is taking centre stage in a battle for regional influence between India and China. Maldives President Yameen declared a state of emergency after the supreme court ordered him to free political prisoners and opposition politicians he jailed. Security forces then stormed the court and arrested two judges and a former leader. The remaining judges annulled a previous ruling. It is being called an assault on democracy. The political drama sparked concern in India, which issued a strong statement saying it is imperative for the government to adhere to a free trade agreement it made with the Maldives. India views China as a geopolitical foe in Asia and is pushing to maintain geo-strategic supremacy in the Indian Ocean, with backing from the US and Japan. Meanwhile, it has expanded its influence by building ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Djibouti (now home to its first overseas military base). See also

A British appeals court rejected demands from America for the extradition of British hacker Lauri Love, citing the inability of US prisons to treat his medical and mental health ailments humanely and adequately. The court ruled that extradition to the US would be ‘oppressive by reason of his physical and mental condition’. Lauri has severe depression, Asperger’s syndrome, asthma, and eczema that has incapacitated him for years, causing him to drop out of colleges despite very high intellectual capability. If extradited, he would have faced solitary confinement and a 99-year prison sentence. American prisons are woefully inadequate to treat his ailments. Incarceration would produce a high risk of suicide. This case highlights the fact that the US prison system has a cruel and abusive attitude when it comes to treating inmates with mental health problems.