Displaying items by tag: Asia
Iran / USA: possible scenarios if Trump decides to attack
As Donald Trump warns Iran that ‘time is running out’ for a nuclear deal (see ), and with US forces reportedly preparing for strikes on Iran within days, the consequences are far from clear. Limited ‘surgical’ attacks could hit Revolutionary Guard facilities, missile sites and nuclear infrastructure, but hopes for a rapid transition to democracy look highly optimistic, given past interventions elsewhere. Another scenario is the regime surviving but moderating its behaviour, though Iran’s leaders have historically resisted change. Many observers fear a collapse followed by hard-line military rule, or worse, nationwide chaos and conflict involving ethnic minorities. Iran has vowed retaliation, which could take the form of missile and drone attacks on US bases or warships, or mining the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping ‘chokepoint’, especially for global oil and LNG. Iran’s Arab neighbours, all US allies, are understandably jittery that Iran could attack them. The most dangerous scenario is escalation into a wider war with no clear end-state and severe regional and economic fallout.
China: speculation about reasons for dismissal of two senior generals
The recent decision to remove China’s two most senior generals, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, and place them under investigation has prompted intense speculation. Zhang was the highest-ranking military figure in the Communist Party, while Liu oversaw key operational command structures. Although the suddenness of their dismissal surprised observers, China’s opaque political system makes firm conclusions difficult. Official statements cite serious disciplinary and legal violations, consistent with Xi Jinping’s long-running anti-corruption campaign within the military. Corruption in procurement and appointments has led to the investigation or dismissal of dozens of senior officers in recent years. While some analysts suggest internal disagreement or damage to military confidence, there is little evidence the moves threaten Xi’s authority. Nor is it clear they weaken or strengthen China’s military capabilities, including regarding Taiwan. Instead, the dismissals probably reflect an intensified drive to enforce discipline and reshape military culture ahead of long-term national planning.
Israel: football pitch for Palestinian children wins a reprieve
A small Palestinian children’s football pitch in Bethlehem has been granted a temporary reprieve after Israel postponed its planned demolition. The Aida Youth Centre pitch, built in 2020 to serve more than two hundred children from the nearby Aida refugee camp, was declared illegal for lacking permits and for its proximity to Israel’s security barrier. A demolition order issued late last year sparked a widespread international campaign, including a petition signed by more than half a million people and appeals from figures within global football. The Israeli military, which still maintains that the pitch poses security concerns, says the postponement is ‘for the time being’. For local families, the issue carries deep emotional weight, symbolising dignity, hope, and normal childhood amid overcrowding and restriction. While the immediate threat has eased, the community fears the order could return once attention fades, and has vowed to keep campaigning.
Pakistan: devastating fire in Karachi shopping centre
Grief and anger grip Karachi after a devastating fire tore through Gul Plaza, a crowded wholesale shopping centre, leaving at least 27 people dead and more than seventy missing. The blaze spread rapidly late on 17 January, trapping shoppers and workers inside a building packed with stalls and mostly locked exits. Survivors described panic, thick smoke, and desperate attempts to escape as flames engulfed the floors within minutes. Many families are still waiting for news of loved ones, gathering at the ruins in anguish and uncertainty. Rescue efforts have been slowed by the unstable, heavily damaged structure, with officials warning it could collapse at any time. As forensic teams work to identify victims, public frustration has grown over alleged delays in emergency response and long-standing safety failures. Protests have erupted, with calls for accountability, reforms in building regulations, and improved disaster preparedness to prevent further tragedies.
Syria: US moves 150 IS prisoners, thousands to follow
US forces have begun transferring IS prisoners out of Syria, moving 150 detainees to Iraq under plans that could see up to 7,000 relocated. The move follows growing instability after Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) withdrew troops from parts of northeast Syria, raising concerns over the security of prisons and detention camps holding thousands of IS members and affiliates. US officials said recent unrest allowed around 200 low-level fighters to escape one facility, though many were later recaptured. More than 10,000 IS fighters remain imprisoned in Syria, alongside thousands of women and children connected to the group. The transfers are being carried out in coordination with the Iraqi government as part of efforts to prevent a resurgence of IS and maintain regional security. The changes come amid a wider political shift, with Syria’s new government seeking to reassert control after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. A ceasefire has been agreed with the SDF, which has been urged to integrate into the Syrian state, marking a significant transition in security arrangements.
Pakistan: exports of rice rise significantly
Exports of rice from Pakistan rebounded strongly in December 2025, rising 14% month on month, driven largely by a surge of more than 50% in basmati shipments. Total exports reached 489,000 tonnes, allowing Pakistan to overtake Vietnam and become the world’s third-largest rice exporter for the month, behind India and Thailand. The UAE and China were the top destinations, while exports also expanded across Africa, Europe, and North America. A significant development was Pakistan’s growing presence in Central Asia, as exporters shifted to direct trade routes following Afghan border closures. Despite these gains, deep structural challenges remain, including intense global competition, policy inconsistencies, high logistics costs, and limited access to key markets such as Iraq and Turkiye. Encouraging signs include rising demand from Iran, Central Asia, and the USA, offering hope for sustained recovery if reforms follow.
Iran: Trump steps back from threats of military action over protests
Donald Trump has stepped back, at least temporarily, from threats of US military action against Iran, saying he has been assured that the killing of protesters has stopped and that no executions are planned. He said these assurances came from ‘very important sources on the other side’, though the claims have not been independently verified. Despite reports that over 3,400 have been killed during the recent anti-government protests and fears of imminent executions, Trump said he was unconvinced that military action would bring decisive change. He had been strenuously lobbied by leaders in the Middle East to not to go ahead with strikes which would be certain to lead to an Iranian counterstrike on US bases. Iranian officials have publicly denied plans for executions, and at least one expected execution has been postponed. While rhetoric has softened slightly, deep divisions over human rights abuses and Iran’s nuclear ambitions persist, leaving the situation fragile and unresolved.
Syria: government tells Kurdish forces to leave Aleppo after deadly clashes
Syria’s army has moved reinforcements to areas east of Aleppo after ordering Kurdish forces to withdraw, following deadly clashes which have killed over 100 and displaced as many as 150,000. The Islamist-led government is seeking to reassert control nationwide, but efforts to integrate the Kurds’ autonomous administration and forces into the state have stalled, despite an agreement reached earlier this year. Kurdish-led forces deny building up troops and accuse the government of launching fresh attacks, while Damascus insists it is responding to provocation. Limited skirmishes and artillery fire have been reported, raising fears of a wider confrontation. In Qamishli, the main Kurdish city in the country's northeast, thousands of people demonstrated, accusing the government of breaking its promises and preparing a broader assault. With mistrust deepening, the situation remains volatile, threatening further suffering for civilians already exhausted by years of conflict. Christians in the region are asking for prayer: see
Japan: search for alternative rare earth sources to avoid reliance on China
Japan has launched a bold effort to secure its future supply of critical minerals by sending a research vessel to mine rare earth elements from the deep seabed near Minamitori Island. The month-long mission marks the first attempt anywhere in the world to lift mineral-rich mud from six kilometres below the ocean surface. This project reflects Japan’s growing urgency to reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates global rare earth supply and has recently banned exports of items destined for Japan’s military. Rare earths are essential for cars, electronics, renewable energy technologies and defence equipment, making supply disruptions a serious economic and security concern. Since a similar crisis in 2010, Japan has diversified imports, invested overseas and built stockpiles, yet still remains heavily dependent on China. Domestic seabed mining could provide a long-term solution, though it is costly, technically complex and years away from full production.
Thailand: at least 31 dead after crane collapses on train
A devastating rail disaster in northeast Thailand has left at least 31 people dead after a construction crane collapsed onto a speeding passenger train, causing it to derail and burst into flames. The accident occurred as the train was travelling from Bangkok to Ubon Ratchathani, carrying nearly 200 passengers. More than sixty were injured, several critically, as fire engulfed damaged carriages. The crane was part of a Thai-Chinese high-speed rail project, part of an ambitious plan to connect China with south-east Asia. The company concerned was involved in the construction of a Bangkok building which collapsed in March during an earthquake. Witnesses described scenes of chaos, with carriages torn open and rescue workers scrambling to reach trapped passengers. Authorities have ordered a full investigation, while political leaders have vowed accountability. The tragedy has shocked the nation and renewed public scrutiny of large infrastructure projects and the human cost when safety is compromised.