Displaying items by tag: Election

As predicted before the elections, the African National Congress (ANC) has lost its parliamentary majority, securing only 40% of the vote. To govern, it needs a coalition partner or might attempt a minority government. It could partner with the Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% but is widely seen as aiming to protect white minority privileges. Alternatively, it could align with Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), which surprised many by gaining 15% of the vote, or Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF); a third alternative is a government of national unity. Cyril Ramaphosa insists any coalition must respect the current constitution: the ANC, EFF, and MK combined still fall short of the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes. The decision about what to do will have a major impact on South Africa, which faces major security and economic challenges.

Following the national elections, Narendra Modi is set to lose his parliamentary majority. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may need to form alliances to retain power. The current poll results suggest that while the BJP will remain the largest party, it might fall short of an outright majority, securing between 230-240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. This potential shortfall would force Modi to seek coalition partners to govern effectively - a significant shift from the 2014 and 2019 elections, where the BJP secured decisive victories. Despite his personal popularity, this result might reshape India's political landscape, making governance more complex and coalition-dependent​. He will find it challenging to maintain political dominance amid increasing economic and social challenges, including high unemployment and rural distress. Some fears have been expressed about his long-term future, and the Indian stock market has tumbled in value in response.

Claudia Sheinbaum, former mayor of Mexico City, has been elected as Mexico's first female president, with 58% of the vote. This strengthens the Morena party's control, following outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Despite concerns about Sheinbaum’s close ties to AMLO, both have insisted he will not influence her administration. She has committed to addressing Mexico's issues, particularly violence and security; the country is plagued by over 30,000 murders a year. During her tenure as mayor, the homicide rate in the capital dropped by 50%, credited to improved security measures. She plans to continue AMLO's strategy of non-confrontation with crime groups, relying on the national guard for security. Analysts expect Sheinbaum's presidency to be more disciplined and globally aware than AMLO's. However, the challenges she faces were highlighted when a female mayor was shot dead on 4 June.

American democracy faces a strange moment as Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate, has been found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The verdict confirms that he altered financial accounts for his 2016 campaign, marking him as a convict. His murky past now seems to have caught up with him. On the other hand, it could be said that the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, combined tax misdemeanours into an indictment, and Judge Juan Merchan's aggressive behaviour has aroused suspicions. Describing it as a rigged trial, Trump has said, ‘Our country has gone to hell. The real verdict is going to be on 5 November by the people’. Democrats fear he might be right, as previous legal actions have boosted his popularity. His sentence, to be decided on 11 July, coincides with the Republican convention. In November we will find out whether Americans view Trump as a criminal or see Biden and his party as the real culprits.

The Labour Party has widened its lead over the Conservatives, according to a YouGov poll. The poll, conducted on 27 and 28 May with 2,128 adults, showed Labour at 47% and the Conservatives at 20%. This indicates no significant boost for the Tories following Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a general election for 4 July instead of waiting until autumn. The Conservatives face challenges in reuniting their 2019 voter base, with only 36% of those voters currently supporting them. Additionally, 19% of 2019 Tory voters would now choose Reform UK, 19% are undecided, and 14% would switch to Labour. Sunak announced the election after inflation fell to 2.3% in April, claiming his plan is effective. However, Labour criticised his apprenticeship policy while promoting their NHS backlog reduction plan, which includes additional appointments and doubling the number of scanners.

On 19 April Indians commenced voting  for their next parliament, with Narendra Modi seeking a third term. Opinion polls favour his BJP party and its allies over an opposition alliance of over two dozen parties including Congress. The election is unfolding amidst bitterness, with opposition leaders alleging an unfair playing field. The numbers are mindboggling: a staggering 969 million voters (almost one-eighth of the world’s population) are eligible to vote, electing 543 MPs. The process will run in seven phases over six weeks: results will be announced on 4 June. Election commissioner Rajiv Kumar has vowed to ‘take democracy to every corner of India’, with some polling booths in the unlikeliest of places. Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, is seen as a key battleground. The outcome of this monumental electoral process will shape India's political landscape for the next five years.

On 15 April Donald Trump became the first former president ever to face a criminal trial. He is accused of falsifying business records related to hush money payments to actress Stormy Daniels (who claims that he had sex with her) before the 2016 election. Prosecutors allege Trump reimbursed his lawyer, Michael Cohen, for the payments and falsely labelled it as a legal fee. Trump pleaded not guilty and called the case a ‘witch hunt.’ New York judge Juan Merchan has named over forty potential witnesses, including many former associates, including Cohen and Rudy Giuliani, as well as Trump's family members and former employees. Merchan has also warned Trump of potential jail time for disrupting or refusing to attend the trial without a valid reason. In jury selection, many potential jurors are being ruled out because they could not be impartial.  What is not clear is whether this trial will influence the result of November’s presidential election: see

The liberal opposition, led by the Democratic Party (DPK), has secured a significant election victory, winning 192 out of 300 seats in South Korea’s national assembly. The result is seen as a midterm assessment of President Yoon Suk Yeol's leadership, as his People Power Party (PPP) suffered a crushing defeat. His party leader has resigned, and the prime minister has offered to do so. The DPK will now be able to fast-track and push legislation through parliament. Its leader Lee Jae-myung may now be emboldened to consider another presidential run. Mr Yoon is under pressure to address a number of issues including rising food prices, a rapidly ageing population and an ongoing doctor's strike. His wife's involvement in a gift controversy and corruption allegations against senior PPP members add to his challenges. The DPK, while celebrating its victory, also faces its own controversies and internal struggles, including corruption allegations.

Vanlalchaka, who lives in the border village of Zokhawthar, has been assisting refugees fleeing the civil war in neighbouring Myanmar since 2021. His village operates seamlessly with Khawmawi, a village just across the border. However, due to security concerns the Indian government has now decided to scrap the free movement regime with Myanmar – a shattering blow for indigenous communities living on both sides of the border. Vanlalchaka and his wife fear that families will be separated and lose livelihoods dependent on open borders for trade and access to essential commodities. The decision also exacerbates the plight of refugees from Myanmar, many of whom seek medical treatment and refuge in villages like Zokhawthar. The move, ahead of the first stage of the national elections on 19 April, has sparked criticism and resistance from border communities and political leaders.

In Arizona, Republican lawmakers faced a backlash as they swiftly shut down discussion on repealing a 1864 law banning abortion without exceptions, causing uproar. The state supreme court decided on 10 April to enforce the law: some Democrats have warned of potential fatalities if this extreme ban remains in place.  Abortion providers have vowed to continue services until forced to stop. Anti-abortion groups have hailed the decision, but abortion rights advocates have gathered over 50,000 signatures - far above what they need to add a ballot question asking voters to approve a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion until viability, when a foetus could survive outside the womb. This could be a key issue in November’s presidential election: see