The EU referendum is likely to be four months away. Some say the Prime Minister is depriving the Out campaign of time to organise themselves into a credible opposition. Others say an early date is to limit the potential for unexpected events - an economic crisis, terrorist attack, Brussels scandal. Whatever the reason, there is now a draft agreement between the UK and the EU which will be presented to EU members, paving the way for an early vote. Less than a third of Conservative MPs and as few as five cabinet members will endorse withdrawal. Theresa May’s support for Cameron’s deal leaves Boris Johnson as the only front-rank Conservative who could yet oppose him. Tory MPs on both sides speak of their desire to avoid a rerun of the 1990s Maastricht debates when the prospect of election defeat encouraged rebellion.