Displaying items by tag: War

On 17 December Lieutenant-general Igor Kirillov and his assistant were killed in Moscow by a  Ukrainian agent in a targeted assassination, intensifying a new front in the conflict. Kirillov, the head of Russia’s nuclear, chemical, and biological defence forces, died in an explosion outside his home caused by a remotely detonated bomb hidden in a scooter. The Ukrainian security service claimed that Kirillov was ‘a legitimate target’ due to his alleged war crimes, including the use of banned chemical weapons on Ukrainian troops. Since February 2022, Russia is said to have used chemical weapons over 4,800 times under his leadership. This marks a continuing trend of Ukraine’s covert operations to assassinate high-ranking Russian officials and disrupt their military efforts. While Ukrainian intelligence rarely takes credit for such actions, these killings are seen as a psychological tool to weaken Russia's morale and send a message about the cost of war crimes.

US intelligence suggests Russia may launch its experimental Oreshnik hypersonic missile against Ukraine within days. First used in an attack on Dnipro in November, the missile displayed astonishing speed and precision, striking a military facility with devastating fireballs. Despite its limited number and smaller warhead compared to other missiles, its deployment is seen as an intimidation tactic rather than a battlefield game-changer. Vladimir Putin boasted about its capabilities on national television, warning NATO allies that supporting Ukraine with longer-range weapons could provoke similar strikes on their territories. This statement followed Putin's signing of a revised nuclear doctrine lowering the threshold for nuclear weapon use, allowing for retaliation even against conventional attacks supported by nuclear powers. Meanwhile, tensions rise as the USA loosens restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons to counter Russian aggression.

On 27 November Russia launched a massive, coordinated strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, hitting cities nationwide with waves of drones and missiles. This marks the second large-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities this month, compounding fears of a harsh winter ahead. Emergency power cuts were introduced as damage to civilian infrastructure was reported in many regions, leaving over a million people without power. Ukrainian officials warned of preemptive power cuts to protect the grid from overloads as temperatures continue to drop. The attacks are part of a broader strategy, with over 1,500 strikes reported this week. Ukrainian officials fear Russia aims to cripple the country’s power grid, a tactic used in previous winters. Russia has also deployed a new type of missile to strike the city of Dnipro, in response to Ukraine launching UK-supplied missiles into Russian territory. For an analysis of the recent developments in the war, see

Ukraine has reportedly used British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets in Russia's Kursk region. These long-range missiles, capable of striking targets nearly 200 miles away, mark a significant escalation in Ukraine's defence capabilities. The missiles were supplied under a policy shift allowing the use of British and US military equipment within Russian territory. However, experts warn their impact may be limited due to Ukraine's small stockpile. Military analysts suggest the missiles have already been used for strategic strikes on logistics hubs and ammunition depots. Meanwhile, tensions escalate as Russia lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons following the US's similar policy shift. Critics fear this could spark wider conflict. On the one thousandth day of Putin’s invasion, the UK announced extra support for Ukraine with funding to provide new drone capabilities. See also and Europe article ‘Biden’s decision on missiles’.

Joe Biden’s long-awaited decision to allow Ukraine to use American missiles against Russian territory comes amid significant Russian territorial gains in 2024. One study shows that Russia has captured nearly 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian land this year - six times its 2023 gains. This aggressive push has strained Ukraine’s defences, despite Kyiv’s efforts to repel attacks. The destruction is immense, and Ukraine’s stretched defensive lines are increasingly vulnerable. The surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region initially boosted morale but is now faltering, with Russian forces reclaiming nearly 50% of lost territory. Analysts suggest that the incursion may have led to a broader strategic miscalculation, tying down its best troops and advanced equipment without significantly slowing Russia’s eastern advances. Meanwhile, the approaching second Trump administration casts uncertainty over US military support for Ukraine, raising fears of reduced aid as the war continues.

The reelection of Donald Trump could significantly impact US support for Ukraine as the war with Russia continues. Throughout his campaign, Trump expressed doubts about the USA’s ongoing commitment to Kyiv, suggesting the possibility of pressuring Ukraine into a truce with Russia. This comes at a critical time; Russia is making advances in the Donbas region, and North Korean troops are reportedly bolstering Russian forces. The Biden administration has provided tens of billions in military and financial aid to Ukraine, but Trump has often praised Vladimir Putin and criticised Volodymyr Zelensky. He has claimed that the war would not have started under his presidency, and has promised to end the conflict swiftly. Zelensky, who was quick to congratulate Trump on his victory, must be concerned about the potential implications for his beleaguered country: American military aid to Ukraine currently accounts for 43% of the total.

Arriving for the latest BRICS summit, Narendra Modi has told Vladimir Putin that India desires peace in Ukraine and is willing to assist in achieving a ceasefire. Putin has used the BRICS platform to highlight the non-Western world’s influence, despite efforts by the West to isolate Russia. BRICS is an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The summit, involving leaders from 22 nations, including China’s president Xi Jinping, altogether represents 45% of the world's population and 35% of its economy. This showcases BRICS' growing global significance, a welcome boost for Putin. When asked about the prospects for peace, he claimed that the West had now realised that Russia would be victorious, but he was open to peace talks based on the ceasefire agreements reached in Istanbul in April 2022. One Russian source stressed that much depended on the result of the US presidential election on 5 November.

South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol has vowed that his government ‘won’t sit idle’ following reports that North Korea has sent three thousand troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. In a meeting with the Polish president, Yoon said that this deployment violates UN resolutions and threatens global security. South Korea’s spy agency says North Korea aims to send up to ten thousand troops to Russia by the end of 2024, though both Moscow and Pyongyang deny the claims. In response, Yoon indicated that South Korea is preparing diplomatic, economic, and military countermeasures in collaboration with allies, including possibly providing Ukraine with weapons systems. While South Korea has so far only supplied Ukraine with non-lethal aid, the situation may prompt a shift in policy. Tensions in the Korean peninsula have intensified as North Korea has reportedly used Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to enhance its nuclear and missile programmes. The two leaders also discussed expanding defence cooperation, including new arms deals for Polish military upgrades. See

Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed optimism that the current battlefield dynamics could create a chance to end Russia’s invasion by 2025. Speaking at a summit meeting in Dubrovnik, Croatia, he highlighted the importance of Ukraine’s allies, particularly the USA, in achieving peace and long-term stability. He noted that October, November, and December present ‘a real chance’ for decisive action, but did not explain how that would happen. Russian forces now hold nearly 20% of Ukraine's territory, and are closing in on another key town, Toretsk. Zelensky also called for Ukraine’s integration into NATO as a means to strengthen its position in any potential negotiations with Russia. At the time of writing he is in London, to meet Keir Starmer and Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, and will then fly to Rome to meet Pope Francis.

Russia has captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, a significant blow to Ukraine as it faces its third wartime winter. Russian soldiers have raised their flag over the devastated town, once home to 14,000 people but now reduced to just over a hundred. Ukraine’s military confirmed their withdrawal, citing the threat of encirclement as Russian reinforcements arrived: their manpower advantage had finally broken Ukraine’s fierce resistance.The town sits at a crucial junction of Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts: Ukraine now has to fight to stop the Russians advancing further west, making the prospect of retaking territory even more remote. This comes just after Volodymyr Zelensky's return from the USA, where he secured aid but not the security guarantees he sought. With Ukraine’s energy infrastructure still under attack, the coming winter will test its resilience even further.